Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 2.436652 3.310037 4.542475 6.469239 9.524283 1.440599e+01 2.331335e+01
2025-03-23 1.606466 2.508444 4.043644 7.061205 13.456256 2.821350e+01 7.277168e+01
2025-03-30 1.120061 1.949598 3.593657 7.546755 18.663622 5.738055e+01 2.933986e+02
2025-04-06 0.771089 1.455301 2.980171 7.310070 23.052985 1.076732e+02 1.512530e+03
2025-04-13 0.532786 1.067211 2.368666 6.588819 25.770446 1.858122e+02 1.278995e+04
2025-04-20 0.412945 0.881406 2.138417 6.888450 35.489744 5.021936e+02 5.975349e+07
2025-04-27 0.337549 0.766277 2.033407 7.660688 54.804468 2.251146e+03 NaN
2025-05-04 0.276530 0.660858 1.894615 8.234726 82.506146 1.746269e+04 NaN
2025-05-11 0.225092 0.559857 1.707389 8.367206 114.989128 4.100466e+05 NaN
2025-05-18 0.180298 0.460596 1.465263 7.818686 137.423252 5.771579e+08 NaN
2025-05-25 0.143086 0.371408 1.212079 6.818001 141.038431 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.124527 0.334116 1.150694 7.259068 220.940708 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 0.107635 0.297186 1.073305 7.521884 341.627832 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 0.095992 0.273828 1.045040 8.317462 660.830005 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 0.085550 0.250969 1.005209 8.986115 1308.402222 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 0.074305 0.221520 0.912623 8.750012 1945.044387 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 0.063559 0.190879 0.796650 7.892404 2178.905691 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 0.057443 0.176103 0.762458 8.304329 4671.062857 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 0.053171 0.167151 0.757356 9.316117 17010.215042 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 0.048906 0.156922 0.738245 10.081073 76301.199558 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 0.044458 0.144663 0.698545 10.277841 339658.309606 NaN NaN
2025-08-10 0.039675 0.129796 0.633079 9.590947 685162.998201 NaN NaN
2025-08-17 0.034913 0.114020 0.554357 8.320102 456732.965539 NaN NaN